Week 14 DFS Plays

First of all, congratulations to all those that have already locked up a playoff spot in their fantasy
leagues. And best of luck to those still fighting for a spot this final week as we push towards the
end of the season. The season may already be winding down for some, but the joy of fantasy is
never ending when it comes to DFS and we are here to help alleviate some of the pain tha
comes with being eliminated from the fantasy playoffs. We are all in this together. This week is
somewhat strange with multitudes of mid week injuries to monitor and some bad weather
games starting to pop up as we move deeper into the winter months. But there is always value
to be had and we will stop at nothing to find winners using PrizePicks player props. We were a
perfect 5/5 on our picks last week so let’s see if we can’t keep the momentum going. We go
again:

Season to date: 39/68 57.35%

Ezekiel Elliott vs Texans OVER 64.5 rushing yards:

How original, another running back facing the Texans. But come on, they are basically the free
square in Bingo at this point. I have mentioned multiple times across these articles that the
Texans are bad against the run but let me reiterate that point one last time for fun of it. Since
2010, out of 416 teams across the years, the Texans rank 415th in rushing yards allowed per
game. The Cowboys could drop them to dead last on Sunday. The Dallas offense has been
clicking as of late, and they are 16.5 point favorites at home at time of writing. Looking at the
last decade, 15+ point home favorites average 31 rushing attempts per game. Zeke should see
a nearly even split in this game with Tony Pollard, giving him plenty of opportunity to establish it
on the ground. On the season, Zeke sits at an average of over 65 yards per game. Just looking
at the last 3 weeks since returning from a knee injury, he sits at over 70 yards per game on an
average 16 attempts. He is the preferred goal line back and will see plenty of work in this game,
so I expect both of those numbers to spike this week against the Texans. He may look like
rookie year Zeke against the Texans this week and I love the over here.

Mike White vs Bills OVER 249.5 passing yards:

\You know we are at a weird point in the fantasy season when we are putting our money on Mike
White’s passing prowess. But in his starts this season he has crushed this over. He has thrown
for 315 and 369 yards in his two games on 85 attempts. Over his 5 games he has started the
last two years he is averaging 287 yards per game. Since losing superstar rookie Breece Hall,
the Jets rushing attack has consisted of 4th round draft pick Michael Carter (averaging just over
4.1 yards on his career and 3.7 in 2022), and undrafted rookie Zonovan Knight who has shown
flashes against bottom tier rush defenses like the Bears and Vikings. I do not expect the Jets to

be able to establish the run game against the Bills, especially as 10 point underdogs. A heavy
pass game script is in store for the Jets as they face the Bills who have had on average 41 pass
attempts thrown against them the last 4 weeks. It seems highly likely we see another 40+ pass
attempts against them this week as the Jets will be in catchup mode. Mike White is more than
capable of moving the ball through the air, as he ranks 6th in yards per attempt for quarterbacks
with more than 75 dropbacks. It may not be pretty, but White can reach this over against
Buffalo.

Garrett Wilson vs Bills OVER 61.5 receiving yards

Here are Garrett Wilson’s averages per game without Zach Wilson under center: 11.2 targets,
6.2 catches, and 94.2 receiving yards. He is a budding superstar that is finally being utilized the
way he should be. Mike White is peppering Wilson with targets, seeing 23(!) over the last two
weeks. We love Mike White because Mike White loves Garrett Wilson. If you look at Wilson’s
receiving numbers when he is seeing at least 8 targets a game, he is averaging 93.8 yards
receiving in those matchups. To put it plainly, when Wilson is getting opportunities, he produces.
As stated before, we expect to see a heavy pass game script for the Jets in this one. And while
the Bills may seem intimidating, they can be beat through the air, allowing the 14th most
receiving yards to wide receivers this season. It is not uncommon to see rookie wide receivers
really come alive at the end of their first season (look at Amon-Ra St. Brown last year) and we
may just be scratching the surface for Wilson. I expect him to continue his hot streak and I love
the Mike White/ Garrett Wilson stack here.

Deshaun Watson vs Bengals UNDER 254.5 Pass+Rush Yards:

Until further notice, we will continue to bet the under on Deshaun Watson. I wrote about him in
last week’s article and the under hit but he looked even worse than I could have imagined. He
completed only 12 passes and had an average depth of target of only 6.3 yards. Outside of a 27
yard completion to Donovan Peoples-Jones, the longest pass of the day went for a measly 13
yards. He set new season lows for the Browns on passing yards and first downs. All of this was
against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Texans. We also called that the Browns
would lean heavily on the run and they did, rushing the ball 38 times. With a backfield like the
Browns have, I would expect to see them run the ball as much as possible until we see Watson
start to return to form. He surely cannot be much worse this week but, as much as this may
shock some of you, the Bengals are a much more superior defense than the Texans. Heading
into week 13, Patrick Mahomes had thrown for 320 yards in six straight games. The surging
Bengals defense held Mahomes to a season low 223 yards. They allow passing touchdowns at
the fourth lowest rate in the league and is 11th in QB pressure rate on the season. On top of
that, they only allow 193 passing yards per game at home. Deshaun Watson is talented, there is
no denying that. But coming back from over 700 days of not playing football will take weeks, if
not months to see him start looking like the Deshaun Watson of old. There is simply no way to
paint a positive picture for him this week and the under here is a great bet.

Greg Dulcich vs Chiefs OVER 40.5 receiving yards:

After Courtland Sutton went down early with an injury in week 13, Greg Dulcich stepped up in a
big way to fill the void. He saw his most targets since week 7 and his most yards since week 8.
He commanded a 38% target share and 42.1% air yards share and finished the game with 85
yards. In other words, he was the go to guy once Sutton left the game. Sutton has already been
ruled out, meaning Dulcich once again steps into a great opportunity this week. Betting on any
part of the Broncos has not been good to us this season, but the Chiefs are heavily favorited in
this game and opposing quarterbacks average 37.2 passing attempts against the Chiefs on the
season, good for 5th highest in the league. The Chiefs are also allowing the tenth most yards
per reception to the tight end on the season (third most since week 7) and we have seen
Dulcich have big play ability this year already with three separate games having a 30+ yard
reception. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett stated earlier this week that they are using Dulcich in
a “wide receiver role” and while I am not one for coach speak, the eyeball test says this is true.
This may not be the sexiest of plays but there’s a real chance Dulcich is the leading receiver in
all categories for the Broncos in back to back weeks and we must take advantage of that.

Thank you so much for reading! As always, good luck this week! Be sure to check out our other
articles for all your fantasy needs. And give us a follow on Twitter @coachesfantasy.