We are back again for week 3 DFS. Last week was a successful week and we plan to keep the train rolling going into week 3. We will still be using No House Advantage for our lines this week. If you haven’t already, be sure to sign up and don’t forget to use code “COACHES” for a deposit match up to $25! These are some of my favorite player props from No House Advantage for this week’s slate of games:
Miles Sanders over 64.5 rushing yards:
I wrote an article earlier this offseason about Miles Sanders being a bounce back candidate for this season and so far he has not disappointed. Through 2 games, Sanders has 30 carries to Boston Scott’s 8 and Kenneth Gainwell’s 7. He has amassed a very respectable 96 and 80 yards on the ground. He is the clear lead back in an offense that loves to establish the run early and often. We can expect more of the same this week in Washington. This defense has been absolutely gashed on the ground allowing 7.5 (!!!) yards per rush this season, ranking dead last in the NFL. Sanders is averaging a very strong 5.87 yards a carry, ranking 2nd in the NFL among players with over 20 attempts. This is the type of momentum we want in on early in the season and I will happily ride this wave until it dies out, if that day ever comes.
Justin Fields under 213.5 passing yards
The Chicago Bears have shown their hand this year and it doesn’t look like Justin Fields will be lighting the league on fire with his arm in 2022. Fields has only attempted 28 passes so far this year, completing 15 for a whopping total of 191 yards. In case you missed that, his combined total passing yards for his first 2 games still falls 22 yards short of his over/under set for this week. For context, Jimmy Garoppolo has only 2 less completions than Justin Fields and 37 less passing yards. Jimmy G has played 3 quarters of football. The Texans have played better than many people expected but the Bears are still favored in this game. I don’t expect for this game to turn into a shootout through the air by any means. With Montgomery looking strong and Fields more than willing to tuck it and run himself, hitting the over for passing yards seems highly unlikely. The passing volume alone makes it extremely hard for the over to ever hit and we can expect this to continue until we are shown otherwise.
David Montgomery over 69.5 rushing yards
Speaking of the low passing volume, let’s discuss David Montgomery. Montgomery is a true bell cow at the running back position. He has handled 72% of backfield snaps (up to 80% in week 2) and has 32 rushing attempts to Khalil Herbert’s 13. In week 2, Montgomery rushed for 122 yards on 15 attempts (8.13 yards per attempt). The Texans have allowed the 4th most rushing yards in the league after 2 weeks. They are bottom 12 in yards per rush allowed at 4.7. As stated before, the Bears do not wish to put the game in Justin Fields hands. The Bears lead the NFL in rushing play percentage at 65.9%. They want to set the tone on the ground and Montgomery is the man they will lean on. With a total over/under set at 39.5, this is a game that projects to play out on the ground. As long as Montgomery continues to shine when given the opportunity, there is no reason the Bears should shy away from the hot hand. I can’t get enough of the overs for running backs in good matchups this week.
Michael Pittman over 72.5 yards and 5.5 receptions:
Pittman is in a prime spot for a monster game against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are -5.5 to win. To keep pace with one of the best offenses in the league the Colts will be forced to throw, no matter how much they want to feed Jonathon Taylor. We saw what the Colts offense looked like when Pittman was out. Matt Ryan was a complete wreck and no receiver stepped up to fill the void left by the alpha receiver in this offense. Nyheim Hines was the 2nd leading receiver on the team if that tells you anything. The passing offense flows through Pittman and Matt Ryan will be fully looking for his savior after his poor showing last week. The Chiefs defense just gave up 8 catches and 113 yards to the Mike Williams the week before, allowing 334 passing yards on the day. I fully expect an overcorrection from Matt Ryan and for Pittman to be the go to guy in this matchup. He will pick up right where he left off after week 1 (9 for 121 and a score on 13 targets). Both of these overs are easy calls.
Carson Wentz over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Betting on Carson Wentz has done more harm than good in the past but here we are. It’s not always pretty but through 2 games Wentz has thrown 7 passing touchdowns. His trio of wide receivers has looked exceptionally well and they are spreading the ball around nicely. Even Antonion Gibson is finally being used as a receiver which helps our case for Wentz that much more. Mismatches will happen when you have 4 talented receiving options, all being a threat to score at any moment. With the Eagles offense scoring at will so far this season, the Commanders won’t be able to let up at any point during the game. It’s always going to be sloppy at times from Wentz, so it might be better for your health to watch a different game. But at the end of the day I expect Wentz to have 2 scores through the air, if not more.
Situations to monitor:
Josh Jacobs under 65.5 rushing yards: Jacobs is dealing with an illness that kept him out of practice and did not travel with the team to Tennessee. It is possible he travels by himself later but stay up to date with reports and this could be a smash play on the under if he is active but on a snap count.
JK Dobbins under 43.5 rushing yards:
Another week, another report of JK Dobbins being truly questionable to suit up for the game. The team is being cautious with is return and it’s a coin flip whether he will play in week 3. Even if Dobbins is active, coming back to a full workload after missing over a year of game action seems highly unlikely. And the Patriots have allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards in the league in 2022 (78 yards per game).
Thank you so much for reading! Be sure to check out other articles on the site for all your fantasy needs. And be sure to check out NoHouseAdvantage.com and use code “COACHES” when signing up!